Precursor Identification and Analysis

The traditional role of accident prevention has been to analyse accidents and serious incidents in order to determine their causal factors, and then to create defences with the aim of preventing recurrence. This fundamentally reactive approach takes no account of lesser events that have not – so far – had serious consequences.

Modern accident prevention strategies also take into account the circumstances which gave rise to these lesser events if it appears that a more severe outcome could have followed in only slightly different circumstances. This process is able to increase the body of precursors - events or factors - which can inform better accident prevention.

The process of identifying precursors should make use of safety data from any available safety reporting or monitoring scheme, such as: